V-P Sara Duterte’s trial to open next phase of Philippine political turmoil

MANILA – After a tumultuous week that started with a Senate power grab and descended into a terrifying night of gunfire, the impeachment saga against Philippine Vice-President Sara Duterte moves on May 18 to the trial phase.

The Senate is expected to convene Ms Duterte’s impeachment court, where its 24 members will determine if she is guilty of allegations including fund misuse and unexplained wealth. That is after the House of Representatives, dominated by allies of her rival, President Ferdinand Marcos Jr, voted to impeach her. She has denied wrongdoing.

While she is expected to be acquitted by the upper chamber, given the two-thirds hurdle needed for a conviction, the political drama is rattling a country with a weak economy and may limit the ability of Mr Marcos to stem the bleeding.

Stagflation concerns are rising in the country, which has been pummelled by the energy crunch caused by the Middle East war. 

Throw in an ongoing, widespread corruption scandal and the Marcos administration has been sapped of investor confidence and political capital for reforms, including measures to promote budget transparency and dilute the power of political dynasties.

“The impeachment saga is not yet a macro story, but is already a confidence and volatility story,” said Mr Ruben Carlo Asuncion, chief economist at Union Bank of the Philippines.

“The bigger risk sits in governance: prolonged proceedings can distract policymakers and slow progress on priority reforms, creating a drag on sentiment.”

The markets have largely looked past the political noise of the past week, but that is cold comfort with the peso and the stock benchmark among the worst performers in Asia since the start of the Iran war in late February.

Meanwhile, business and civil society groups are urging lawmakers to right the ship.

The Management Association of the Philippines, with hundreds of private sector leaders as members, and 10 other organisations have called for Ms Duterte’s impeachment trial in the Senate to be free from political intervention.

“For the business community, the implications are significant,” the groups said in a joint statement. “When the rule of law appears subordinate to political interests, investor confidence and institutional credibility suffer.”

Upper hand

The drama marks a fresh low in the bitter feud between Mr Marcos and Ms Duterte.

The Vice-President is the lead contender to replace Mr Marcos when his single six-year term ends in 2028, and he has aired concerns that his ally-turned-nemesis could reverse his reforms including trade and security pacts. 

Ms Duterte is the only Philippine politician to be impeached twice. Her initial impeachment in 2025 was ultimately nixed after the top court struck down the case on procedural grounds.

This time she has an even clearer edge, after her allies installed a supporter as leader of the Senate. That gave her camp the power to decide when the trial starts and what evidence will be revealed.

The new Senate leadership has already signalled that the chamber’s time will be split between the impeachment proceedings and its normal business of legislative hearings and sessions to move bills along.

“The biggest issue for me is the balancing of legislative work, given the crisis that we are facing now,” Senate President Alan Peter Cayetano said at a briefing last week.

“If the economy were in good shape, we can give 90 per cent to 95 per cent of our time to the impeachment court.”

The Senate leadership will likely want a quick acquittal rather than letting the trial drag out, given their new majority in the upper chamber is fragile, according to Mr Gary Ador Dionisio, dean of the School of Diplomacy and Governance at the De La Salle-College of Saint Benilde in Manila. That may limit potentially damaging evidence from being presented, he added. 

“The Vice-President has the upper hand,” he said. “Preventing the Senate from discussing all the evidence is most probably their game plan here.” Bloomberg